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Editor’s Note:
President Barack Obama will host the leaders from the Arab Gulf States — GCC members Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Oman — at the White House and Camp David (May 13-14) for discussions about Gulf and regional security issues. The Saudi delegation is led by Crown Prince and Minister of Interior Mohammed bin Nayef, and includes Deputy Crown Prince and Minister of Defense Mohammed bin Salman and Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir. SUSRIS has assembled a large collection of reference documents and articles in our Special Section on the summit.
Today we add to that compilation a timely and comprehensive assessment of Gulf security and the Arab-US partnership by Dr. Anthony H. Cordesman, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS. We commend this report to your attention as you follow the US-GCC Summit in Washington and Camp David this week. It will give you substantial insights into the correlation of forces and the challenges the partners face.
[Link here to the complete document on the CSIS Web site.]
The Arab-U.S. Strategic Partnership and the Changing Security Balance in the Gulf
By Anthony H. Cordesman, with the assistance of Michael Peacock
May 12, 2015
The coming meeting between the U.S. and the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has highlighted the growing crisis in Gulf security, the widening range of threats from non-state actors, and the fact that Iran poses security challenges that go far beyond its search for nuclear weapons. It has also highlighted the need to redefine the security partnership between the US, the Arab Gulf states, and other key states like Egypt and Jordan.
The Burke Chair at CSIS is preparing a new book-length assessment of the Gulf military balance, the military capabilities of each Gulf state, the role of the U.S. as a security partner, and the priorities for change in the structure of both the GCC and the Arab Gulf military partnership with the US. This assessment goes far beyond the conventional military balance and examines how force developments in the region affect joint and asymmetric warfare, missiles and missile defense, nuclear forces, and the role of non-state actors, and outside powers.
A draft of this study, entitled The Arab-U.S. Strategic Partnership and the Changing Security Balance in the Gulf , is now available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/150512_Gulf Military_Balance.pdf.
The study provides both a narrative analysis of key security issues and force developments, and detailed charts, tables, and maps comparing key force elements, military spending, force structure and size, weapons numbers, and arms transfers. It covers Iran, Iraq, Yemen, and each of the GCC states in detail, US forces, and the impact of other outside powers.
Separate chapters cover:
I. The Security Balance: The Changing Balance of the Gulf Forces and Regional Threats
II. Military Expenditures
III. Arms Imports
IV. Ground Forces
V. Naval Forces
VI. Air Forces
VII. Land-Based Air Defense Forces
VIII. Surface-to-Surface Missiles
IX. Missile Defenses
X. The Potential Threat from Iranian Nuclear Forces
XI. Extremism and Terrorism, and Paramilitary and Security Forces
XII. US Forces in the Gulf and Total Power Projection Capabilities
The final report is intended to serve as a reference for both meetings like the coming meeting between the US and the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council, and military and security analysts. Comments, corrections, and additions would be most helpful and should be sent to Anthony H. Cordesman at acordesman@gmail.com.
Other recent Burke Chair papers covering the Gulf include:
The Arab-US Strategic Partnership in the Gulf; http://csis.org/files/publication/150507_US_Arab_Gulf_Strategic_Partners… .
The Arab Gulf and the U.S. Strategic Partnership in Ballistic Missile Defense ;http://csis.org/files/publication/150504_arabgulf_missiledefense_present… .
First Quarterly Report of the New Lead Inspector General for Overseas Contingency Operations on Operation Inherent Resolve; A Public Relations Exercise without Meaningful Transparency; http://csis.org/files/publication/150501_commentary.pdf .
Yemen and Warfare in Failed States ; http://csis.org/files/publication/150422_yemen_warfare_failedstates.pdf ; and http://csis.org/files/publication/150422_trends_graphics.pdf.
America’s Failed Approach to Chaos Theory ; http://csis.org/publication/americas-failed-approach-chaos-theory
Iran – Verify and Trust May Come: The Parameters for the Proposed Joint Comprehensive Plan ; http://csis.org/publication/judging-p51-nuclear-agreement-iran-key-crite…
Read more on this topic:
More from Dr. Anthony Cordesman:
04/28/2015
To Yemen and Beyond: A Conversation with Dr. Anthony Cordesman
Dr. Anthony Cordesman, CSIS Arleigh Burke Chair in Strategy, talked with SUSRIS in an exclusive interview on the consequences of the Yemen intervention and the regional impact.
Analysis | The Complexity Crisis in U.S. Strategy – Cordesman
CSIS Burke Chair in Strategy, Dr. Anthony Cordesman, examines the “hollow rhetoric” of Washington’s strategic approach to complex global challenges.
04/23/2015
Analysis | Yemen and Warfare in Failed States – Cordesman
The introduction of the new phase in the Yemen intervention raises important questions about the nature of “war fighting and nation building” in chaotic states.Dr. Anthony Cordesman, CSIS Arleigh Burke Chair, took up the issue in an assessment that draws from the Yemen experience to consider the wider questions.
04/02/2015
Iran Nuclear Deal | Parameters… – Cordesman
The proposed parameters and framework in the proposed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action has the potential to meet every test in creating a valid agreement over time of the kind laid out earlier in the Burke Chair analysis, according to Dr. Anthony Cordesman.
04/01/2015
Judging a P5+1 Nuclear Agreement with Iran – Cordesman
The “Judging a P5+1 Nuclear Agreement with Iran: The Key Criteria” report by Dr. Anthony Cordesman provides an extremely useful document for reference when assessing developments in the negotiations and thereafter.
03/26/2015
America, Saudi Arabia, and the Strategic Importance of Yemen – Cordesman
The crisis in Yemen has entered a new phase with the military intervention of Saudi Arabia and its coalition partners. No understanding of developments in the region would be complete without a primer from Dr. Anthony Cordesman, Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS, to serve as a comprehensive resource for background and context.
03/16/2015
Judging a P5+1 Agreement with Iran – Cordesman
As this critical phase of the negotiations plays out it may be useful for you to review a timely and comprehensive analysis of the agreement issues published by Dr. Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Burke Chair in Strategy.
01/26/2015
Saudi Arabia’s Smooth Succession – Cordesman
Dr. Anthony Cordesman has provided a comprehensive report on the smooth succession in Saudi Arabia following the passing of King Abdullah.
01/09/2015
Analysis | True Nature of the Saudi Succession “Crisis” – Cordesman
Saudi King Abdullah was admitted to a Riyadh hospital on December 31st for treatment of pneumonia. The physical condition of the aging monarch is closely guarded and closely watched and medical issues inevitably touch off speculation about the end of Abdullah’s rule. Today we are pleased to present for your consideration a comprehensive and incisive review of developments surrounding King Abdullah’s medical issues, developments in Saudi Arabia and the prospects for succession.
12/01/2014
Impact of International Shifts on Gulf Security – Cordesman
Today we are pleased to present for your consideration a keynote address from Dr. Anthony Cordesman, CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, to the Third International Conference on Strategic Studies: Shifts and Changes in the World System and its Impacts on the Middle East; November 25-26, 2014, Doha, Qatar.
