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Analysis

A roadside bomb attack targeted a police van on July 28, in the predominately Shiite village of Sitra, south of the capital Manama, killing two police officers and wounding five others. Police attacks are nothing new in Bahrain, where the authorities have been attempting to quash Shiite protests since 2011. During the past few years, police officers have been killed in relatively unsophisticated ways, such as being run over by cars or after being hit by flare guns, pipe bombs and Molotov cocktails. 

A tactical breakdown of the July 28 attack, however, reveals that it was different from past attacks against police in Bahrain. First, the explosive device used in the action appears to have been constructed using high explosives, as opposed to the type of low explosive pipe bomb most frequently employed. Second, photographs of the target area reveal that the device employed uniformly shaped shrapnel that appeared to be round, like ball bearings, rather than irregular, like nails or bolts. The spread of the shrapnel also appears to be somewhat uniform, indicating that the device was either a directional claymore-type anti-personnel mine, or an improvised version of such a weapon.

In addition to the type of ordnance used, the attack appears to have been well planned and executed. The shrapnel damage pattern on the police van suggests that that device was activated at the optimal time — often devices are triggered too early or too late, resulting in a failed attack. Also, the device was planted along a route the police were known to take and in a place that afforded the triggerman clear visibility of the target. 

A previously unknown group, Saraaya Wa’ad Allah (God’s Promise Brigade), claimed responsibility on Twitter. The group said the attack was its first and threatened to conduct more. The attack’s degree of sophistication suggests that a new actor — or an existing one that has received external assistance or training — was indeed responsible.

The Bahraini government has blamed the attack on Iran, which has long been accused of inciting and equipping Shiite militants in the Emirate. Bahraini authorities also claimed in recent days to have intercepted a shipment of weapons and explosives from Iran destined for Bahrain Shiite dissidents. Security forces said that the explosives seized were the same type used in the deadly July 28 attack, although they have not specified exactly what category of explosives were involved. Bahraini authorities have seized caches of weapons and explosives in the past, steadfast in the belief that the arms shipments were in transit from Iran to Shiite militants in Bahrain. Given Iran’s history of arming and training militants in the region, it is quite possible that Tehran trained and armed the authors of the July 28 attack.

Bahrain is not the only Gulf country experiencing security problems. In the Qatif area of Saudi Arabia’s eastern province today one police officer was killed and two others wounded when the vehicle they were traveling in came under fire from gunmen in another car. Two men have reportedly been arrested in connection with that case. If the group that attacked the police patrol is Shiite, it may be an indication that the Shiites are angry at the authorities over the recent mosque attacks conducted by the Islamic State’s Wilayat Najd.

The attack could also possibly be the work of jihadists who are active in the region, hoping to sow sectarian discord among the government, security forces and the Shiites. As a final point to consider, the attack may have simply been a criminal matter that has no connection to the sectarian conflict at all. Heavily armed smugglers and other organized criminal groups are known to work in the region. While an outside possibility, all factors must be considered.