Empires often implode. Others are defeated by a superior force. Red Bull, though, must feel as though they have lost their dominion through a sophisticated act of larceny. In Formula One the rules of engagement have suddenly changed and Red Bull are about to lose their astonishing hegemony. It did not help that a March mizzle was falling on their Milton Keynes headquarters early on Friday morning as the team principal, Christian Horner, arrived for business – an empire lost and now a damp nose.

Red Bull have not lost their drivers’ and constructors’ world titles quite yet. But as they prepared for their departure to Australia this weekend, for the first race of the 2014 campaign on Sunday, it was with the knowledge that they are not going to win in Melbourne; they know they are not going to get even close.

Inside, Sebastian Vettel, the four times world champion, was driving very fast imagined miles on the simulator; his new team-mate, Daniel Ricciardo, was already in his native Australia. Everywhere in the light blue building there was the bustle of imminent departure but a bewildered fatalism was also crowding in.

Vettel failed to reach four figures in terms of kilometres covered in three test sessions, finishing 18th of this season’s 22 race drivers, with Mercedes’ Nico Rosberg leading the way with 2,812km. A standard grand prix race distance is a little over 300km, meaning Vettel’s total of 859km does not even amount to three grands prix distance.

Red Bull’s main problem is the engine, which gives the distinct impression it has just fallen off the back of an old Renault 4. Power trains will replace the Pirelli tyres as Formula One’s big talking point this season. For years there has been the stability of reliable 2.4-litre V8s; now there are untried 1.6-litre V6 turbos. Mercedes and Ferrari have had their problems too but the four teams powered by Renault – Red Bull, Lotus, Toro Rosso and Caterham – have had the most issues.

Vettel, aiming to equal the record of five championships in a row set by his compatriot Michael Schumacher between 2000 and 2004, says: “It’s just a bloody difficult time because it’s a difficult car to work on. Right now it’s impossible to have any expectations. It’s hard to know where we are but it’s fair to say we’re not favourites to win in Melbourne. But I don’t see anybody getting upset, even if it is a hard time at the moment of course. Everybody is fine. It’s just a bloody difficult time because it’s a difficult car to work on.”

There were reports –hotly denied by the team – that the frustrated German had thrown a hissy fit in testing but publicly at least Vettel is being diplomatic, saying, “It’s worse for the mechanics, crawling around all day on the floor putting the car together for the umpteenth time.”

David Coulthard, who finished his F1 career with Red Bull, says: “The reliability is shocking in anybody’s book, and Renault by their admission are behind. They’re just not delivering the horses. Mercedes are significantly quicker, like 30km an hour quicker in some cases than some of the Renault-powered cars. We’ve not seen that since the days of turbos and non-turbo in the 80s.

“Red Bull are not good. They are several weeks behind in development. But that means they can make big steps. And I think we will see that. They feel they have a well-sorted car, even with the limited running they’ve done, so they’re happy with the base of the car.”

Most people like the look of the new RB10 car, even though the black nose-tip could represent a little piece of mourning for lost glories. The car itself appears to be another triumph for the alchemist designer Adrian Newey. The trouble is no one knows how good it might be.

The Renault engine is struggling for pace. But more important is its lack of reliability. In testing the Red Bull burned as slowly as a church candle. Not once in 12 days of testing were Red Bull able to complete a race-distance simulation, so it was uncertain whether their anxiety to keep the car under wraps reflected secrecy or embarrassment. Even the upbeat Rob White, Renault Sport’s F1 deputy managing director, could only shrug after the final testing session and grumble that things were not as they should be. But Red Bull are not blameless either and even Newey appears to have been at fault with the aggressive packaging of the engine, which has caused over-heating problems.

Ben Edwards, the BBC’s respected F1 commentator, said: “It does seem that there has been an installation problem. The way they have packaged the power unit has made it more difficult for them than the others. Adrian is a perfectionist. He takes risks.

“What I love about him is that he is a racer. Newey is a great designer because he takes gambles and sometimes they don’t pay off. But he’s also extremely adept at turning it around and understanding very quickly where the problems lie and correcting it.”

Edwards is not alone. The technical expert Gary Anderson said: “I think Red Bull might have gone a little too far.”

Even more damning is the verdict of Ron Dennis, CEO of McLaren: “Some of what Red Bull is experiencing is self-inflicted.”

McLaren’s former world champion Jenson Button says: “I don’t think a Red Bull will be on the front row, which is a positive thing for the sport. It’s sad to say we think like that but it’s the case. They’ve been too dominant. It’s going to be exciting for the sport to see a smaller team, Williams, fighting it out at the front. People will love that.”

In the team’s reception area the trophy cabinet looms overhead like a cliff face but there is tangible uncertainty as to whether there will be any additions too the bulging shelves this year. But wait. In one of the silliest decisions ever made by F1, and one which demeans the sport, double points have been awarded for the last race, in Abu Dhabi on 23 November – to stop Red Bull, who won the last nine races of the 2013 season, running away with the title. Now, though, they will be playing catch-up for much of the season and this could be a lifeline.

“Ironically double points could really help Red Bull because they should be stronger at the end of the year,” says Edwards. “If Seb has any chance going into that final round he will be up for it because he knows how to win championships. He’s done it so often. So don’t count him out. That’s why everyone will still have to keep an eye on Red Bull. Because if they start to get it right, they will be up there.”