Bahrain and the GCC’s role in confronting the so-called Islamic State (IS) murderers is to be commended ‘“ because the strategy needs allies in the Middle East to have a chance of working. Yet the alliance must be deep as well as broad if it is to endure.
The law of diminishing returns will apply soon, however.
Most obvious targets have already been hit. As Is fighters retreat behind human shields, civilian casualties will rise and the resolve of the new coalition will weaken.
Pictures of Prince Khaled bin Salman of the Royal Saudi Air Force climbing out of an F-15 fighter after a raid into the Is heartland, will bolster a valuable impression of common purpose.
The greater risk is that Obama’s own commitment to the campaign begins to fade after November’s mid-term elections. He has warned Americans that their new military deployment could last years, but he has spent three years girding himself for it, with grave consequences already for America’s standing and influence from Ukraine to the South China sea.
Ultimately, if falls on Obama himself to lead with a resolve that has so far eluded him. This is for the sake of the Middle East and for his legacy. He is a war president ‘“ whether he likes it or not.
His strategy has four components: air strikes, training and equipping allied forces on the ground, cutting off funding to IS and stopping the flow of foreign fighters to the region. All four are vital. Together they add up to a reasonably coherent plan given the fast-moving target and Washington’s self-imposed ban on redeploying combat troops.
The pity is that it comes so late.
The White House argues that its casus belli is the emergence of IS. Yet, there is little doubt that Obama’s hesitant response to earlier crises helped to create the power vacuum in which IS has flourished. It bears repeating that when he allowed jets to support air strikes on Libya three years ago he was, as one of his own aides put it, ‘leading from the behind’.
In Syria he telegraphed timidity by failing to punish the Bashar Al Assad regime for using chemical weapons.
Six months later, Vladimir Putin judged rightly that he would not be punished for the annexation of Crimea.
America is weary of war, and regional as well as European powers have vital roles in the defeat of Islamist extremism.
But global leadership carries a heavy price, and this time Obama must lead from the front.
Mohammed L